By: Eileene Danneman
Using the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), including updates through July 11, 2010 as a second ascertainment source, capture-recapture statistical methods were used to estimate the true number of miscarriages and stillbirths following A-H1N1 flu vaccination in the U.S.
Typically , even so-called “complete” studies conducted by the CDC have been shown to miss from 10% to 90% of the actual cases because of under-reporting.
The statistical method employed is an expeditious and cost effective method of attempting to ascertain a complete count of all cases when two or more ascertainment sources (VAERS and NCOW survey) have failed to collect all the existing cases.
Overall, this approach show that approximately 15% of the occurences of a miscarriage or stillbirth were actually reported.
The ascertainment-corrected estimate for the total number of 2009-A-H1N1-flu-shot-associated miscarriages and stillbirths during the 2009-2010 flu season is 1,588 (95% goodness-of-fit confidence interval, 946 to 3587). That is, the lower and upper range-probability of miscarriage and stillbirths due to the H1N1 vaccine was as low as 946 and as high as 3,587.
Eileen Dannemann, Director of NCOW, stated that before she made a presentation in Rockville, MD, Sept 3, 2010 at the Advisory Commission on Childhood Vaccines (ACCV) meeting. “Dr. Marie McCormick, (long time CDC gal) chair person of the Vaccine Risk and assessment working group, announced that there were NO ADVERSE EVENTS in pregnant women as it concerns the H1N1 vaccine this past flu season,” directly contradicting the evidence publicly available. “This baseless and fallacious assessment by the CDC assessment group has given the green light to the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP ) to strongly recommend the 2010/11 flu shot containing not only the offending H1N1 viral component and the neurotoxin mercury (Thimerosal), but 2 other viral strains- a 3 in 1 shot to to all people, including pregnant women, Dannemann said.