Received 30 July 2009; accepted 8 December 2009. published online 11 February 2010.
To develop a model of adolescent (HPV) human papillomavirus vaccine utilization that explored future HPV vaccination rates, with and without a school mandate, for the vaccine at middle school entry.
A dynamic, population-based, compartmental model was developed that estimated over a 50-year time horizon HPV vaccine uptake among female adolescents living in the United States. The model incorporated data on parental attitudes about this vaccine and adolescent health care utilization levels.
Without a mandate, our model predicted that 70% coverage, a lower threshold value used in many previous modeling studies of HPV vaccination, would not be achieved until a mean of 23 years after vaccine availability. Maximal coverage of 79% was achieved after 50 years. With a school mandate in place, utilization increased substantially, with 70% vaccination coverage achieved by year 8 and maximal vaccination coverage, 90%, achieved by year 43.
Our results suggest that vaccine utilization is likely to be low for several years, though strong school mandates might improve HPV vaccine uptake. These results affect the interpretation of previous modeling studies that estimated the potential clinical effects of HPV vaccination under assumptions of very high vaccine utilization rates.