To develop a model of adolescent (HPV) human papillomavirus vaccine utilization that explored future HPV vaccination rates, with and without a school mandate, for the vaccine at middle school entry.
Without a mandate, our model predicted that 70% coverage, a lower threshold value used in many previous modeling studies of HPV vaccination, would not be achieved until a mean of 23 years after vaccine availability. Maximal coverage of 79% was achieved after 50 years. With a school mandate in place, utilization increased substantially, with 70% vaccination coverage achieved by year 8 and maximal vaccination coverage, 90%, achieved by year 43.
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